THE BEAR FACTS

Apr 1, 2008 12:00 PM, David A. Geracioti

Bear markets are shrinking. According to Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research, in a typical post-WWII bear market, the S&P 500 declined 30 percent over 15 months. By comparison, bear markets typically saw declines of 37 percent over 20 months from 1900 to date.

100-PLUS YEARS OF BEAR MARKETS
S&P 500 (1926 to date); Dow Jones (1900 to 1926)
Dates of Market Peak	Date Of Market Trough	% Return	Duration	Market Peak	Market Trough
June 30, 1901	Nov. 30, 1903	-44%	29.0 Months	45.3	25.4
Oct. 30, 1906	Nov. 30, 1907	-45	13.0 Months	51.3	28.0
Dec. 31, 1909	Feb. 28, 1915	-29	62.0 Months	58.5	41.4
Nov. 30, 1916	Dec. 31, 1917	-36	13.0 Months	77.5	49.4
Oct. 30, 1919	Aug. 31, 1921	-44	22.0 Months	82.5	46.5
Sep. 6, 1929	Jun. 1, 1932	-86	33.0 Months	31.8	4.4
Sep. 7 1932	Feb. 27, 1933	-41	5.5.0 Months	9.3	5.5
Jul 7, 1933	Mar. 15, 1935	-31	15.0 Months	12.0	8.2
Mar. 5, 1937	Mar. 31, 1938	-54	13.0 Months	18.6	8.5
Nov. 11, 1938	Apr. 28, 1942	-45	41.0 Months	13.7	7.5
May 29, 1946	Jun. 13, 1949	-30	36.5 Months	19.3	13.6
Aug. 2, 1956	Oct. 22, 1957	-22	8.0 Months	49.7	39.0
Dec. 12, 1961	Jun. 26, 1962	-28	6.5 Months	72.6	52.3
Feb. 9, 1966	Oct. 7, 1966	-22	8.0 Months	94.1	73.2
Nov. 29, 1968	May 26, 1970	-36	18.0 Months	108.4	69.3
Jan. 11, 1973	Oct. 3, 1974	-48	20.5 Months	120.2	62.3
Sept. 21, 1976	Mar. 6, 1978	-19	17.5 Months	107.8	86.9
Nov. 28, 1980	Aug. 12, 1982	-27	20.5 Months	140.5	102.4
Aug. 25, 1987	Dec. 24, 1987	-34	4.0 Months	336.8	223.9
Jul. 16, 1990	Oct. 11, 1990	-20	3.0 Months	369.0	295.5
Jul. 17, 1998	Aug. 31, 1998	-19	1.5 Months	1186.8	957.3
Mar. 24, 2000	Oct. 9, 2002	-49	30.5 Months	1527.5	776.7
Oct. 9, 2007	???	???	???	1565.1	???

1900-to-date Average:	-36.8	19.5 Months	1945-to-date Average	-29.5	15.1 Months
1900-to-date Median	-34.8	16.3 Months	1945-to-date Median	-27.5	16.2 Months
Source: Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research

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