THE BEAR FACTS

Apr 1, 2008 12:00 PM, David A. Geracioti


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Bear markets are shrinking. According to Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research, in a typical post-WWII bear market, the S&P 500 declined 30 percent over 15 months. By comparison, bear markets typically saw declines of 37 percent over 20 months from 1900 to date.

100-PLUS YEARS OF BEAR MARKETS
S&P 500 (1926 to date); Dow Jones (1900 to 1926)
Dates of Market Peak Date Of Market Trough % Return Duration Market Peak Market Trough
June 30, 1901 Nov. 30, 1903 -44% 29.0 Months 45.3 25.4
Oct. 30, 1906 Nov. 30, 1907 -45 13.0 Months 51.3 28.0
Dec. 31, 1909 Feb. 28, 1915 -29 62.0 Months 58.5 41.4
Nov. 30, 1916 Dec. 31, 1917 -36 13.0 Months 77.5 49.4
Oct. 30, 1919 Aug. 31, 1921 -44 22.0 Months 82.5 46.5
Sep. 6, 1929 Jun. 1, 1932 -86 33.0 Months 31.8 4.4
Sep. 7 1932 Feb. 27, 1933 -41 5.5.0 Months 9.3 5.5
Jul 7, 1933 Mar. 15, 1935 -31 15.0 Months 12.0 8.2
Mar. 5, 1937 Mar. 31, 1938 -54 13.0 Months 18.6 8.5
Nov. 11, 1938 Apr. 28, 1942 -45 41.0 Months 13.7 7.5
May 29, 1946 Jun. 13, 1949 -30 36.5 Months 19.3 13.6
Aug. 2, 1956 Oct. 22, 1957 -22 8.0 Months 49.7 39.0
Dec. 12, 1961 Jun. 26, 1962 -28 6.5 Months 72.6 52.3
Feb. 9, 1966 Oct. 7, 1966 -22 8.0 Months 94.1 73.2
Nov. 29, 1968 May 26, 1970 -36 18.0 Months 108.4 69.3
Jan. 11, 1973 Oct. 3, 1974 -48 20.5 Months 120.2 62.3
Sept. 21, 1976 Mar. 6, 1978 -19 17.5 Months 107.8 86.9
Nov. 28, 1980 Aug. 12, 1982 -27 20.5 Months 140.5 102.4
Aug. 25, 1987 Dec. 24, 1987 -34 4.0 Months 336.8 223.9
Jul. 16, 1990 Oct. 11, 1990 -20 3.0 Months 369.0 295.5
Jul. 17, 1998 Aug. 31, 1998 -19 1.5 Months 1186.8 957.3
Mar. 24, 2000 Oct. 9, 2002 -49 30.5 Months 1527.5 776.7
Oct. 9, 2007 ??? ??? ??? 1565.1 ???

1900-to-date Average: -36.8 19.5 Months 1945-to-date Average -29.5 15.1 Months
1900-to-date Median -34.8 16.3 Months 1945-to-date Median -27.5 16.2 Months
Source: Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research


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