WHAT RECESSION?
When it comes to company earnings estimates, analysts tend to be optimistic. The U.S. is probably in the midst of a recession, spurred by the credit crunch, yet analysts' earnings estimates for 2008 are very rosy indeed — not a single sector is expected to experience a down year. Below, consensus earnings growth estimates for 2008, versus earnings growth in 2001.
| Industry Sector (S&P 500) | Recent 2008 S&P 500 Estimates (Bottoms Up Operating Earnings) | Reported S&P Earnings During the 2001 recession |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 17.1% | -57% |
| Consumer Staples | 20 | 1.0 |
| Energy | 14 | 21 |
| Financials | 25.6 | -15 |
| Health Care | 14.1 | -5 |
| Industrials | 7.2 | -14 |
| Information Technology | 18.6 | -184 |
| Materials | 3.2 | -79 |
| Telecommunication Services | 34.5 | -91 |
| Utilities | 11.6 | -2 |
| Source: The Leuthold Group | ||
