THE BEAR FACTS
Bear markets are shrinking. According to Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research, in a typical post-WWII bear market, the S&P 500 declined 30 percent over 15 months. By comparison, bear markets typically saw declines of 37 percent over 20 months from 1900 to date.
| Dates of Market Peak | Date Of Market Trough | % Return | Duration | Market Peak | Market Trough |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 1901 | Nov. 30, 1903 | -44% | 29.0 Months | 45.3 | 25.4 |
| Oct. 30, 1906 | Nov. 30, 1907 | -45 | 13.0 Months | 51.3 | 28.0 |
| Dec. 31, 1909 | Feb. 28, 1915 | -29 | 62.0 Months | 58.5 | 41.4 |
| Nov. 30, 1916 | Dec. 31, 1917 | -36 | 13.0 Months | 77.5 | 49.4 |
| Oct. 30, 1919 | Aug. 31, 1921 | -44 | 22.0 Months | 82.5 | 46.5 |
| Sep. 6, 1929 | Jun. 1, 1932 | -86 | 33.0 Months | 31.8 | 4.4 |
| Sep. 7 1932 | Feb. 27, 1933 | -41 | 5.5.0 Months | 9.3 | 5.5 |
| Jul 7, 1933 | Mar. 15, 1935 | -31 | 15.0 Months | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| Mar. 5, 1937 | Mar. 31, 1938 | -54 | 13.0 Months | 18.6 | 8.5 |
| Nov. 11, 1938 | Apr. 28, 1942 | -45 | 41.0 Months | 13.7 | 7.5 |
| May 29, 1946 | Jun. 13, 1949 | -30 | 36.5 Months | 19.3 | 13.6 |
| Aug. 2, 1956 | Oct. 22, 1957 | -22 | 8.0 Months | 49.7 | 39.0 |
| Dec. 12, 1961 | Jun. 26, 1962 | -28 | 6.5 Months | 72.6 | 52.3 |
| Feb. 9, 1966 | Oct. 7, 1966 | -22 | 8.0 Months | 94.1 | 73.2 |
| Nov. 29, 1968 | May 26, 1970 | -36 | 18.0 Months | 108.4 | 69.3 |
| Jan. 11, 1973 | Oct. 3, 1974 | -48 | 20.5 Months | 120.2 | 62.3 |
| Sept. 21, 1976 | Mar. 6, 1978 | -19 | 17.5 Months | 107.8 | 86.9 |
| Nov. 28, 1980 | Aug. 12, 1982 | -27 | 20.5 Months | 140.5 | 102.4 |
| Aug. 25, 1987 | Dec. 24, 1987 | -34 | 4.0 Months | 336.8 | 223.9 |
| Jul. 16, 1990 | Oct. 11, 1990 | -20 | 3.0 Months | 369.0 | 295.5 |
| Jul. 17, 1998 | Aug. 31, 1998 | -19 | 1.5 Months | 1186.8 | 957.3 |
| Mar. 24, 2000 | Oct. 9, 2002 | -49 | 30.5 Months | 1527.5 | 776.7 |
| Oct. 9, 2007 | ??? | ??? | ??? | 1565.1 | ??? |
| 1900-to-date Average: | -36.8 | 19.5 Months | 1945-to-date Average | -29.5 | 15.1 Months |
| 1900-to-date Median | -34.8 | 16.3 Months | 1945-to-date Median | -27.5 | 16.2 Months |
| Source: Leuthold Weeden Institutional Research | |||||
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